关键词: 梅毒, 时空聚类分析, 地理信息系统, 浙江

Abstract: 【Abstract】 Objective To analyze spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of syphilis in Zhejiang province from 2016 to 2020, to explore cluster areas of syphilis cases, and to provide a theoretical basis for accurate prevention and control of syphilis. Methods Data on reported syphilis cases in Zhejiang province from 2016 to 2020 were collected from the notifiable infectious disease surveillance system in China Disease Control and Prevention Information System. The ArcGIS10.2 software was used as a data management and presentation platform to establish a database for spatial analysis of syphilis in Zhejiang province from 2016 to 2020, and spatial autocorrelation analysis of reported syphilis incidence was conducted. The SaTScan 9.6 software was used for spatiotemporal scanning analysis. Results A total of 158 420 cases of syphilis were reported in Zhejiang province from 2016 to 2020, and the average annual reported incidence rate was 49.07 per 100 000 in all counties and districts （range: 20.52 per 100 000 - 124.29 per 100 000）. The overall spatial distribution pattern of syphilis cases in Zhejiang province was characterized by higher reported syphilis incidence in the West area and lower incidence in the middle area. Global autocorrelation analysis showed that all the global Moran′s I indices from 2016 to 2020 were over 0, Z values were over 1.96, and P values were below 0.001, suggesting the spatial clustering of reported syphilis cases. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that there were 2 high-high clustering areas （Tonglu and Chun′an counties in Hangzhou city, Jingning county in Lishui city）, and 1 low-low clustering area （Jindong district, Dongyang and Yongkang county-level cities in Jinhua city）. Local hot-spot analysis with G statistic showed that there were 6 positive hot-spot areas and 8 negative hot-spot areas of syphilis cases in Zhejiang province. SaTScan spatiotemporal scanning analysis revealed 3 clustering areas, mainly distributed in Taizhou and Zhoushan cities along the eastern coast, and some counties and districts in the southwestern mountainous areas. Conclusions The reported incidence rate of syphilis in Zhejiang province is characterized by spatial clustering. In the future, prevention and control of syphilis should be strengthened in southwestern mountainous areas, eastern islands, and other remote areas as well as areas with poor transportation.

Key words: Syphilis, Space-time clustering, Geographic information systems, Zhejiang