关键词: 淋病, 时空聚类分析, 空间自相关

Abstract: 【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of gonorrhea in Fujian province from 2010 to 2019, and to provide scientific evidence for developing prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on gonorrhea cases reported in counties and districts in Fujian province from 2010 to 2019 were collected from the National Notifiable Disease Report System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. OpenGeoda 1.12 software was used for global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis with Moran′s I as the statistic, and SaTScan 9.6 software was used for spatial-temporal cluster analysis to explore high-risk areas. Results A total of 56 053 cases of gonorrhea were reported in Fujian province from 2010 to 2019. The reported incidence of gonorrhea slightly increased from 2010 to 2013, decreased from 2013 to 2014, and markedly increased from 2014 to 2018 with an average annual increase rate of 8.36%. However, the reported incidence sharply dropped again in 2019. Global autocorrelation analysis showed that the global Moran′s I index ranged from 0.48 to 0.65 between 2010 and 2019 （all P < 0.05）, and there was global spatial autocorrelation of gonorrhea cases in counties and districts in Fujian province. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that the main spatial clustering patterns of gonorrhea cases in Fujian province were high-high, low-low and high-low clusters. In recent years, high-high clustering areas had shown an expanding trend, and were mainly distributed in Siming and Huli districts in Xiamen city, as well as in Licheng and Fengze districts, Jinjiang, Shishi and Nan′an county-level cities in Quanzhou city. Spatial-temporal clustering analysis revealed that the first-level spatial-temporal clustering areas were counties and districts in Xiamen city, as well as central urban areas, Jinjiang, Shishi and Nan′an county-level cities in Quanzhou city from January 2015 to December 2019. Conclusions There was a spatial and temporal clustering of gonorrhea cases in Fujian province. High-high clustering areas were mainly distributed in the economically developed areas along the southeast coast of Fujian province, and had shown a gradually expanding trend in recent years. Counties and districts in Xiamen city, central urban areas and their surrounding county-level cities in Quanzhou city should be regarded as key areas for gonorrhea prevention and control.

Key words: Gonorrhea, Space-time clustering, Spatial autocorrelation