中华皮肤科杂志 ›› 2014, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (8): 538-542.

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

浙江省2004—2012年淋病流行特征及时空聚集性分析

蔡剑1,吴李梅2,傅桂明1,顾华1,陈恩富1,柴程良1,王笑笑1   

  1. 1. 浙江省疾病预防控制中心
    2. 杭州，浙江省皮肤病防治研究所防治科
  • 收稿日期:2013-09-05 修回日期:2014-04-17 发布日期:2014-08-01
  • 通讯作者: 蔡剑 E-mail:jcai@cdc.zj.cn

Epidemiological characteristics of and temporal-spatial clustering of gonorrhea in Zhejiang province during 2004 - 2012

  • Received:2013-09-05 Revised:2014-04-17 Published:2014-08-01
  • Contact: Jian CAI E-mail:jcai@cdc.zj.cn

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摘要： 【摘要】 目的 了解浙江省淋病流行病学特征，掌握其时空聚集性变化。 方法 通过“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”获得浙江省2004年1月至2012年12月淋病发病资料和人口学数据，描述其人间、时间、空间分布特征，绘制流行曲线、发病率地图。采用时空重排扫描统计方法，扫描时空聚集区；采用空间自相关方法，计算Moran I值，绘制空间关联局域指标（LISA）聚集性地图。 结果 浙江省2004—2012年累计报告淋病199 965例，报告发病率呈下降趋势，男女比例为3.51 ∶ 1（155 634/44 331），年龄构成以25 ～ 60岁为主，占75.21%，但0 ～ 1岁组和60岁以上组构成比随时间呈上升趋势。浙江中部和北部地区发病率高于浙南地区，夏季发病数高于冬春季，高峰期为8月。共有13个时空聚集区，较大的时空聚集区出现在杭州及其与湖州相邻的县（市、区）、宁波和绍兴相邻县（市、区）以及金华部分县（市、区），均持续4.5年时间。空间关联局域指标聚集性地图显示高-高相邻的聚集县（市、区）有增多的趋势，并向浙南扩散。 结论 浙江省淋病发病以青壮年男性为主，存在时空聚集性。

关键词: 淋病, 流行病学研究, 时空聚类分析, 小地区分析

Abstract: Cai Jian*, Wu Limei, Fu Guiming, Gu Hua, Chen Enfu, Chai Chengliang, Wang Xiaoxiao. *Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China Corresponding author: Cai Jian, Email: jcai@cdc.zj.cn 【Abstract】 Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of gonorrhea, and to analyze its temporal-spatial clustering in Zhejiang province. Methods Data on the incidence and demographic characteristics of gonorrhea in Zhejiang province from January 2004 to December 2012 were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The population, time and space distributions of gonorrhea were described. Epidemic curve and incidence maps were drawn. A space-time permutation scan statistic was used to detect space-time clusters, and spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed to calculate the Moran′s I value and draw Local Indicators of Spatial Association （LISA） cluster maps. Results In Zhejiang province, a total of 199 956 cases of gonorrhea were reported with a decreasing trend in incidence rate from 2004 to 2012. The male to female ratio was 3.51 ∶ 1 （155 634/44 331）. People aged between 25 and 60 years accounted for 75.21% of these patients, whereas the constituent ratio of people aged 0 － 1 years and > 60 years increased with time. The incidence rate of gonorrhea was significantly higher in middle and north parts than in the south part of Zhejiang province, and higher in summer than in winter and spring with the peak incidence observed in August. Thirteen temporal-spatial clusters were detected, with the large clusters in Hangzhou, Huzhou, Ningbo, Shaoxing and their neighbor counties/cities/districts, as well as some counties/cities/districts in Jinhua. All of the above clusters lasted 4.5 years. LISA maps showed an increasing trend in high-high aggregation counties/cities/districts which spread from the north to south part of Zhejiang province. Conclusion There is a temporal-spatial aggregation of gonorrhea in Zhejiang province with young and middle-aged men as the main affected population.

Key words: Gonorrhea, Epidemiologic studies, Space-time clustering, Small-area analysis

引用本文

蔡剑 吴李梅 傅桂明 顾华 陈恩富 柴程良 王笑笑. 浙江省2004—2012年淋病流行特征及时空聚集性分析[J]. 中华皮肤科杂志, 2014,47(8):538-542. doi: