中华皮肤科杂志 ›› 2025, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (3): 228-233.doi: 10.35541/cjd.20240308

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

2009—2019年江苏省皮肤黑色素瘤发病趋势及年龄变化分析

李远程1    韩仁强2    缪伟刚2    罗鹏飞2     

  1. 1中国医学科学院  北京协和医学院皮肤病医院中心实验室，南京  210042；2江苏省疾病预防控制中心，南京  210009
  • 收稿日期:2024-06-11 修回日期:2024-12-13 发布日期:2025-03-07
  • 通讯作者: 罗鹏飞 E-mail:1057618023@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金（82304236）；江苏省基础研究计划自然科学基金（BK20230129）；2022年度江苏省科技资源（重大疾病生物样本）统筹服务平台开放课题（TC2022B016）

Incidence trends and age distribution of cutaneous melanoma in Jiangsu province from 2010 to 2019

Li Yuancheng1, Han Renqiang2, Miao Weigang2, Luo Pengfei2   

  1. 1Central Laboratory, Hospital of Dermatology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Nanjing 210042, China; 2Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China
  • Received:2024-06-11 Revised:2024-12-13 Published:2025-03-07
  • Contact: Luo Pengfei E-mail:1057618023@qq.com
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China （82304236）; Jiangsu Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China （BK20230129）; Open Project of Jiangsu Provincial Science and Technology Resources （Clinical Resources） Coordination Service Platform （TC2022B016） 

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摘要： 【摘要】 目的 分析2009—2019年江苏省皮肤黑色素瘤发病趋势及患者年龄变化情况。方法 本研究为横断面研究。选取2009—2019年江苏省质量控制合格、各年度数据连续完整的16个肿瘤登记处，收集其上报的皮肤黑色素瘤发病数据。采用Jointpoint软件的对数线性回归模型计算发病率的年度变化百分比（AAPC），分析不同性别、城乡地区皮肤黑色素瘤的发病变化趋势。使用2000年中国人口普查标准人口构成进行中国人口标准化发病率（简称中标率）计算。采用Jointpoint软件的回归模型评价平均发病年龄随年份变化的趋势，若无拐点，则使用t检验比较不同年份平均发病年龄变化及年龄别发病构成变化幅度。采用出生队列模型分析不同年份出生组别发病率的变化情况。结果 2009年江苏省皮肤黑色素瘤标准化发病率为0.26/10万，2019年为0.49/10万，全省发病率呈上升趋势（中标率AAPC：6.17%，P < 0.001）；亚组分析中，不同性别、地区的发病率均呈上升趋势（中标率AAPC：男性4.24%，女性8.01%，城市地区5.17%，农村地区7.62%；均P < 0.001）。2009年江苏省皮肤黑色素瘤标准化平均发病年龄为59.95岁，2019年为58.84岁，平均发病年龄随年份变化的趋势无统计学意义（P = 0.196）。与2009年相比，2019年60岁及以上人群皮肤黑色素瘤实际发病构成比平均年度增幅1.20%（P = 0.020）。出生队列模型中，不同性别、城乡地区的各年龄组内发病率随着出生年份增加而逐渐升高（均P < 0.05）。结论 2009—2019年江苏省皮肤黑色素瘤发病率整体水平较低，但存在上升趋势；农村和城市地区，女性及男性群体发病率均呈现增长态势，且皮肤黑色素瘤发病率随年龄增长。

关键词: 黑色素瘤, 发病率, 江苏, 横断面研究, 趋势分析

Abstract: 【Abstract】 Objective To analyze incidence trends and age distribution of cutaneous melanoma in Jiangsu province from 2010 to 2019. Methods In this cross-sectional study, data on the reported incidence of cutaneous melanoma from 2009 to 2019 were obtained from 16 cancer registries in Jiangsu Province, which had complete and continuous records after quality control. The Jointpoint log-linear regression model was used, and the average annual percentage change （AAPC） was calculated to analyze incidence trends of cutaneous melanoma in different genders and areas （urban or rural）. Data from the Chinese population census in 2000 were used for calculation of age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population. The Jointpoint regression model was used to evaluate the trends in the average age at onset over time. If there were no inflection points, a t test was used to compare changes in the average age at onset and age-specific proportions among different years. The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze changes of the incidence in birth cohorts in different years. Results The age-standardized incidence rate of cutaneous melanoma in Jiangsu province was 0.26/100 000 in 2009 and 0.49/100 000 in 2019. Overall, the provincial incidence rates showed an increasing trend （AAPC in age-standardized incidence rates: 6.17%, P < 0.001）. In the subgroup analyses, increasing trends were observed in different genders and areas （AAPC in age-standardized incidence rates: 4.24% for males, 8.01% for females, 5.17% for urban areas, 7.62% for rural areas, all P < 0.001）. The standardized average age at onset of cutaneous melanoma was 59.95 years in 2009 and 58.84 years in 2019, with no significant trend in average age at onset over time （P = 0.196）. People aged 60 years and above had an AAPC of 1.20% （P = 0.020） in the actual incidence proportion of cutaneous melanoma in 2019 compared with 2009. The age-period-cohort model showed that the incidence progressively increased with the year of birth in age groups among patients of different genders and in different areas （all P < 0.05）. Conclusions The overall incidence of cutaneous melanoma was relatively low in Jiangsu province from 2009 to 2019, however, an upward trend was observed. Patients in both rural and urban areas, as well as female and male populations, all exhibited increasing incidence rates. The incidence rates of cutaneous melanoma increased with age.

Key words: Melanoma, Incidence, Jiangsu, Cross-sectional studies, Trend analysis

引用本文

李远程 韩仁强 缪伟刚 罗鹏飞 . 2009—2019年江苏省皮肤黑色素瘤发病趋势及年龄变化分析[J]. 中华皮肤科杂志, 2025,58(3):228-233. doi:10.35541/cjd.20240308

Li Yuancheng, Han Renqiang, Miao Weigang, Luo Pengfei. Incidence trends and age distribution of cutaneous melanoma in Jiangsu province from 2010 to 2019[J]. Chinese Journal of Dermatology, 2025, 58(3): 228-233.doi:10.35541/cjd.20240308