中华皮肤科杂志 ›› 2026, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (10): 967-973.doi: 10.35541/cjd.20260298

• 论著·性传播疾病 • 上一篇    下一篇

2010—2025年中国15 ~ < 50岁育龄女性梅毒流行趋势及时空分析

谢依婷1    华敏霞1    岳晓丽2    李婧2    张家晖2    龚向东2   

  1. 1北京协和医学院/中国医学科学院/皮肤病医院/皮肤病研究所，南京  210042；2中国医学科学院北京协和医学院，皮肤病医院  中国疾病预防控制中心性病控制中心性病流行病学室，南京  210042
  • 收稿日期:2026-05-27 修回日期:2026-09-07 发布日期:2026-10-07
  • 通讯作者: 龚向东 E-mail:gxdchina@163.com

Epidemiological trends and spatiotemporal analysis of syphilis among women of childbearing age （15 - < 50 years） in China, 2010 - 2025

Xie Yiting¹, Hua Minxia¹, Yue Xiaoli², Li Jing², Zhang Jiahui², Gong Xiangdong²   

  1. ¹Hospital for Skin Diseases, Institute of Dermatology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences ＆ Peking Union Medical College, Nanjing 210042, China; ²Division of Sexually Transmitted Disease Epidemiology, National Center for STD Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hospital for Skin Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences ＆ Peking Union Medical College, Nanjing 210042, China
  • Received:2026-05-27 Revised:2026-09-07 Published:2026-10-07
  • Contact: Gong Xiangdong E-mail:gxdchina@163.com

PDF

8

摘要： 【摘要】 目的 分析2010—2025年中国15 ~ < 50岁育龄女性梅毒的流行趋势和时空分布特征。方法 基于中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统收集31个省（自治区、直辖市）2010—2025年育龄女性梅毒分年龄段病例报告数据。采用Joinpoint回归计算年均变化百分比（AAPC）；以地市级行政单位为地理分析单元，借助ArcGIS软件开展全局莫兰指数（Moran's I）、全局G系数（Getis-Ord General G）和局部G系数（Getis-Ord Gi*）热点分析，并采用SaTScan离散型Poisson模型进行时空扫描。结果 2010—2025年，全国15 ~ < 50岁育龄女性梅毒报告发病率总体呈现波动趋势，2010年和2025年的发病率分别为39.36/10万和39.88/10万（AAPC = 0.05%，P = 0.86），其中，一期与二期梅毒报告发病率由2010年的19.07/10万降至2025年的3.27/10万（AAPC = -11.73%，P < 0.001），隐性梅毒发病率由20.13/10万升至36.56/10万（AAPC = 4.38%，P < 0.001）。年龄分层分析显示，15 ~ < 25岁组梅毒报告发病率由2010年的31.99/10万升至2025年的51.70/10万（AAPC = 4.49%，P < 0.001）；25 ~ < 35岁组由64.16/10万降至38.92/10万（AAPC = -4.19%，P < 0.001）；35 ~ < 50岁组由30.61/10万波动至34.79/10万（AAPC = 0.77%，P = 0.09）。发病率存在显著空间正自相关（Moran's I值范围0.31 ~ 0.63，均P < 0.001）和高值聚集［Z（G）值范围10.32 ~ 18.85，均P < 0.001］。各年度热点地区为31 ~ 59个单元，主要分布于新疆、青海、四川、云南、海南等地。时空扫描共识别35个有统计学意义的聚集区，2010—2017年主要分布于浙江、福建等省份，2018—2025年主要分布于新疆、青海、四川、西藏等省区。结论 2010—2025年全国15 ~ < 50岁育龄女性一期与二期梅毒报告发病率呈下降趋势，疫情存在明显的时空聚集性；热点地区与时空聚集区分布基本一致，主要分布在东南沿海、西北和西南地区，时空聚集区随时间推移逐渐从东南沿海向西北、西南地区转移。

关键词: 梅毒, 育龄女性, 发病率, 流行特征, 时空分布

Abstract: 【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the epidemiological trends and spatiotemporal patterns of reported syphilis incidence among women of childbearing age （15 - < 50 years） in China from 2010 to 2025. Methods Data on reported syphilis cases among women of childbearing age in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China, stratified by age, were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2010 to 2025. Joinpoint regression models were used to calculate the average annual percentage change （AAPC） in incidence rates. With prefecture-level administrative units as the geographical analysis units, ArcGIS software was used to calculate global Moran's I and the Getis-Ord General G statistic for spatial autocorrelation and the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic for hotspot analysis, and SaTScan was used with the discrete Poisson model for space-time scan analysis. Results From 2010 to 2025, the reported incidence rate of syphilis among women of childbearing age （15 - < 50 years） in China exhibited a fluctuating trend overall, with the incidence rates in 2010 and 2025 being 39.36 per 100 000 and 39.88 per 100 000, respectively （AAPC = 0.05%, P = 0.86）; specifically, the reported incidence rate of primary and secondary syphilis decreased from 19.07 per 100 000 in 2010 to 3.27 per 100 000 in 2025 （AAPC = -11.73%, P < 0.001）, whereas the incidence rate of latent syphilis increased from 20.13 per 100 000 to 36.56 per 100 000 （AAPC = 4.38%, P < 0.001）. Age-stratified analysis showed that the reported incidence rate of syphilis in the age group of 15 - < 25 years increased from 31.99 per 100 000 in 2010 to 51.70 per 100 000 in 2025 （AAPC = 4.49%, P < 0.001）; in the age group of 25 - < 35 years, it decreased from 64.16 per 100 000 to 38.92 per 100 000 （AAPC = -4.19%, P < 0.001）; in the age group of 35 - < 50 years, it fluctuated from 30.61 per 100 000 to 34.79 per 100 000 （AAPC = 0.77%, P = 0.09）. The incidence rates showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation （Moran′s I: 0.31 - 0.63, all P < 0.001） and high-value clustering （Z ［G］: 10.32 - 18.85, all P < 0.001）. Each year, 31 to 59 prefecture-level administrative units were identified as hotspots, primarily located in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Hainan. A total of 35 statistically significant clusters were identified by space-time scan analysis; from 2010 to 2017, these clusters were mainly located in Zhejiang and Fujian; from 2018 to 2025, they were mainly located in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Sichuan, and Xizang. Conclusion From 2010 to 2025, the reported incidence rates of primary and secondary syphilis among women of childbearing age （15 - < 50 years） in China showed a downward trend, and the epidemic exhibited distinct spatiotemporal clustering. The hotspot areas closely coincided with the spatiotemporal clusters, and were mainly distributed in the southeastern coastal, northwestern, and southwestern regions; the spatiotemporal clusters gradually shifted from the southeastern coastal areas to the northwestern and southwestern areas over time.

Key words: Syphilis, Women of childbearing age, Incidence rate, Epidemiological characteristics, Spatiotemporal distribution

引用本文

谢依婷 华敏霞 岳晓丽 李婧 张家晖 龚向东. 2010—2025年中国15 ~ < 50岁育龄女性梅毒流行趋势及时空分析[J]. 中华皮肤科杂志, 2026,59(10):967-973. doi:10.35541/cjd.20260298

Yi-Ting XIE Minxia Hua Xiao-Li Jing LI Jiahui jiahuiZhang. Epidemiological trends and spatiotemporal analysis of syphilis among women of childbearing age （15 - < 50 years） in China, 2010 - 2025[J]. Chinese Journal of Dermatology, 2026, 59(10): 967-973.doi:10.35541/cjd.20260298