中华皮肤科杂志 ›› 1990, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (5): 314-315.

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

应用指数函数模型参数评价麻风患病率的下降幅度

杨忠民1, 陶明波2, 叶干运1, 李文忠1, 罗西谷2, 骆钧2   

  1. 1. 中国医学科学院皮肤病研究所;
    2. 江苏省扬州市皮肤病防治所
  • 收稿日期:1989-03-28 修回日期:1989-08-16 发布日期:1990-10-15

Application of parameters of exponential function model to evaluate the decrcasing amplitude of leprosy prevalence

YANG Zhong-Min1, TAO Ming-Bo2   

  1. Institete of Dermatology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Nanjing
  • Received:1989-03-28 Revised:1989-08-16 Published:1990-10-15

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摘要： 本文应用指数函数模型参数a、b与平均下降幅度相比较,对扬州市麻风患病率的下降幅度进行评价,结果表明,前者比后者更精确、灵敏,更能反映患病率的实际下降情况,参数b直接反映了麻风患病率的下降速度,通过分析麻风患病率与下降幅度的关系发现,下降幅度与期初麻风患病率呈正相关,而与期末麻风患病率无相关关系存在.提示我们在麻风患病率降到很低时,其下降幅度可能也越来越小,欲达到基本消灭指标,必将付出更艰苦的努力.

Abstract: Thus paper reports the study on the average decreasing amplitude of leprosy prevalence of Yangzhou city in comparison yvith parasnetera a, b of exponential function models. The results indicate that the parametEr b reflects directly the decreasing rates of leprosy preva. lence. This indicator is even more accurate, sensitive and can express the real reduction of the prevalcnce than the average reductive rate. Through analysing the relationship between the decreasiing amplitude and leprosy prevalence rate we find that the decreasing amplitude of leprosy is positively correlated to the prcvalcnct at the early period, but not to the prevalence at the later period.